Will the Belarusians Oust Lukashenko? Or Not?

In January 2025, Belarus is preparing for yet another presidential election, which could become a pivotal moment in the country's political history. The question of whether there is a real chance for the Belarusian people to oust Alexander Lukashenko remains one of the most discussed and pressing issues.

Chances of Ousting:

1. Historical Context: Lukashenko has been in power since 1994, and his rule has been repeatedly marred by allegations of election fraud and the suppression of opposition. Following the massive protests in 2020, spurred by disputed election results, many started talking about the possibility of a change in the political landscape. However, despite the wave of discontent, Lukashenko managed to retain power, thanks in part to the support from security forces and Russia.

2. Opposition and International Pressure: Opposition forces, such as Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her supporters, continue to actively work on the international stage and within Belarus, calling for free and fair elections. Their efforts are backed by sanctions and statements from the EU and other countries, demanding democratization. However, without strong internal support and real changes in the electoral process, these steps might remain just external pressure.

3. The 2025 Election: Lukashenko has already announced his intention to participate in the upcoming election, and according to official statistics from past elections, he traditionally secures a high percentage of votes. The vote-counting system raises doubts, and many fear that without significant changes in election control, the chances of ousting Lukashenko through elections remain minimal.

4. Social and Economic Factors: Economic issues and social discontent could push people towards protests, but for a real change in power, more than just dissatisfaction is needed; organized action and support from key internal players like the security services and elites are crucial.

The question of whether the Belarusians will oust Lukashenko in the 2025 election remains open. For this to happen, it would require not only a powerful wave of protests but also significant changes in the electoral system and support from key internal forces. Without these elements, the current status quo is likely to persist, with Lukashenko continuing to rule Belarus. However, as history shows, the situation can change rapidly if internal and external factors converge at the right moment.