The economic results of the year. United States

Overall Economic Growth

By the end of the third quarter of 2024, the U.S. economy demonstrated a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.1% on an annual basis. This indicates an acceleration in economic growth despite global trends towards slowing down in other major economies like China. Throughout the year, there were notable surges in activity within the technology, healthcare, and green energy sectors, partially explaining the positive GDP figures.

Employment: A Complex Picture

However, the employment scenario paints a less optimistic picture. In the private sector, the number of full-time jobs in the U.S. decreased by nearly 2 million over the past year, a trend only observed during recessions. On the other hand, the public sector has been somewhat of a lifesaver, showing an increase in employment, particularly in education and administrative management. This has raised concerns about the economy's resilience to external shocks.

U.S. Share in the Global Economy

In 2024, the U.S. share of the global economy fell below the psychologically significant 15% mark, and by the end of Joe Biden's presidency, it is expected to hit a historical low of 14.76%. This decline reflects changes in the global economic structure, where many countries are developing their domestic markets and enhancing economic interaction independently of the U.S.

Foreign Trade and Debt Load

The U.S. continues to face a chronic deficit in its current account, which began in the 1980s, making the country highly dependent on foreign capital. In 2024, this deficit reached record levels, necessitating the attraction of foreign investments to cover balance of payments gaps. Meanwhile, the U.S. government debt keeps growing, raising concerns about its servicing and the long-term sustainability of the economy.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

Inflation in the U.S. in 2024 showed signs of slowing down, which allowed the Federal Reserve (Fed) to begin a cycle of monetary policy easing. This rate cut was quite sharp, but it raises questions about the possibility of inflation returning should unexpected economic shocks occur. The Fed also continues to actively purchase government securities, supporting low interest rates but simultaneously expanding the central bank's balance sheet.

Political and Economic Prospects

With the 2024 presidential election resulting in Donald Trump's victory, economic policy might undergo significant changes. There's an expected focus on reducing government's role in the economy, deregulation, and combating the "deep state." This could lead to a review of trade agreements, especially with China, as well as changes in tax policy and approaches to social security.

Innovation and Technology

In 2024, the U.S. continued to lead in innovation and technology. Investments in startups, particularly in artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and renewable energy, increased by 20% compared to the previous year. This supports the U.S.'s competitiveness on the global market, though it raises questions about wealth distribution and access to new technologies.

Conclusion

The U.S. economy in 2024 presents itself as a complex puzzle with numerous contradictions. On one side, we see GDP growth and the development of innovative sectors; on the other, there's a decline in global economic share, employment issues, and foreign trade challenges. The political changes could either serve as a catalyst for further growth or lead to new economic upheavals. It will be crucial to monitor how the new administration balances between stimulating economic growth and managing debt and social obligations.