Options for Ending the War Between Russia and Ukraine

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began in 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and continued in Donbas, escalating into a full-scale invasion in 2022, remains one of the key issues in global politics. Let's consider possible scenarios for ending this conflict:

1. Diplomatic Settlement

A diplomatic end to the war involves negotiations that could lead to various forms of compromise. Options include:

Minsk Agreements: Reviving and implementing the Minsk agreements, which provide for a special status for Donbas, a ceasefire, and troop withdrawal.

New Peace Agreement: Signing a new peace treaty that would take into account the current situation on the ground, possibly recognizing changed borders and autonomy for certain Ukrainian regions.

2. International Mediation

This scenario involves active participation by international organizations or powers:

Normandy Format: Returning to negotiations in the Normandy Format (Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany) with the possibility of involving other countries or the UN.

UN Mission: Deploying UN peacekeeping forces along the line of contact to ensure a ceasefire and create conditions for a political solution.

3. Military Victory for One Side

Ukrainian Victory: Ukraine could regain control over all occupied territories, which would require significant military support from allies and could lead to further casualties and devastation.

Russian Victory: A scenario where Russia consolidates its gains, possibly with the condition that Western support for Ukraine ends.

4. Freezing the Conflict

This option presumes the cessation of active combat without a final political settlement:

Line of Demarcation: Establishing a new line of demarcation that effectively acknowledges the current status quo without official recognition of territories.

Long-term Ceasefire: An agreement on a ceasefire for an indefinite period, allowing both sides to focus on recovery and development while postponing the final political decision for the future.

5. Regime Change in One or Both Countries

Elections or political changes could lead to leaders coming to power who are willing to compromise:

Change of Leadership in Russia: New leadership might be inclined towards normalizing relations with the West and seeking a peaceful resolution.

Change of Leadership in Ukraine: Similar changes could lead to more flexible policies regarding disputed territories or more decisive steps towards European integration.

Each of these options has its complexities, tied to political will, international pressure, domestic public opinion, and strategic interests. Any resolution will require significant effort from all interested parties and the international community to achieve a stable and long-lasting peace.