The Future of Syria: The Influence of Terrorist Organizations

Following the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, Syria finds itself in a vulnerable position where terrorist organizations could exploit the chaos to strengthen or even expand their influence. Here's how the situation might develop considering the role of various terrorist groups.

Primary Terrorist Groups in Syria:

- Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS): Previously known as "Jabhat al-Nusra", HTS is the dominant Islamist group in northwestern Syria, especially in the Idlib province. The group aims to establish an Islamic state on Syrian territory and has links to international terrorism, despite attempts at rebranding and distancing itself from Al-Qaeda.

- Islamic State (ISIS): Although ISIS has lost much of its territory, its cells continue to operate, particularly in desert areas. In the power vacuum, ISIS might attempt to revive its influence.

- Other Islamist Groups: In addition to HTS and ISIS, numerous smaller Salafist and jihadist factions operate in Syria, which may unite or compete for control over territories.

Possible Development Scenarios:

- Expansion of HTS Influence: HTS, with significant resources and some external support (including certain conditions from Turkey), might try to expand its territories beyond Idlib. Their leadership in the recent offensive on Damascus shows their potential for further power grabs if there is no strong opposition.

- Resurgence of ISIS: In the chaos, ISIS could use guerrilla warfare tactics and terrorist attacks to destabilize the situation, aiming to restore its "caliphate". Their strategy might include attacks on civilians and military targets to demonstrate strength.

- Fragmentation and Competition: Different groups, pursuing various ideologies, might compete for control, leading to internal conflicts among terrorists. This could temporarily lower their overall threat but might eventually lead to one group's strengthening.

- International Intervention: Countries interested in regional stability, like Russia, the US, and their allies, might intensify counter-terrorism operations. However, without coordination and consideration of local realities, this could lead to new conflicts or merely displace terrorists to other regions.

Consequences for Syria:

- Security and Social Environment: The continued activity of terrorist groups will threaten civilian safety, obstructing peaceful rebuilding and refugee repatriation.

- Political Instability: Terrorist organizations can hinder the formation of a stable government, using violence to achieve their goals or as a means of influencing political processes.

- Economic Recovery: With the threat of terrorism, investments in Syria's reconstruction will be reduced, complicating the country's economic revival.

Terrorist organizations pose one of the main threats to Syria's future. Their influence could either increase in a power vacuum or be diminished through coordinated international and local anti-terrorism efforts. Key here will not only be military combat but also political resolution, involving all segments of Syrian society.