Could Syria Become the New Afghanistan?

Political Instability and Power Vacuum

After the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, Syria could find itself in a situation similar to Afghanistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops in 1989. The lack of a strong, unified central government might lead to the country's fragmentation into various zones of influence controlled by different groups, including Islamist factions. This creates a risk of a new power vacuum that could be filled by radical groups, much like the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Threat of Islamism and Radicalization

Syria has already witnessed the rise of extremist groups like ISIS and HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham). If these or similar groups manage to seize power or significant territories, it could lead to the establishment of Sharia law, akin to what happened under the Taliban in Afghanistan. This would not only change the country's domestic policies but would also have serious international repercussions, given Syria's strategic location.

Foreign Intervention and Geopolitics

Afghanistan became a battleground for geopolitical games between superpowers, a scenario that could repeat in Syria. Russia, Iran, Turkey, the USA, and Israel all have stakes in the region. In the case of weakened centralized control, these nations might support different factions, exacerbating conflict and instability, as seen in Afghanistan.

Economic Ruin and Humanitarian Crisis

Afghanistan still struggles with the consequences of decades of conflict and economic collapse. Syria, with its destroyed infrastructure, high unemployment, and millions of refugees, could face similar issues if a solution for political stabilization and economic recovery is not found. Prolonged conflict might lead to a generation that has grown up in war conditions, with limited access to education and development opportunities.

Cultural Heritage and Identity

Just as Afghanistan saw the destruction of much of its cultural heritage, Syria has already lost part of its cultural legacy due to the conflict. Future regimes might continue this trend, especially if groups with radical ideologies, rejecting history and culture not aligned with their views, come to power.

The comparison of Syria to Afghanistan reflects concerns about the potential long-term consequences of the current conflict. While Afghanistan has shown how quickly a country can descend into chaos and become a breeding ground for terrorism, Syria has its unique context, but the risks remain similar. The situation requires a careful international approach to avoid repeating a scenario where the country becomes a long-term battleground for conflict and extremism.